Tuesday, June 22, 2010

XJO


Another illustration of technical analysis and miracle of Fibonacci
This is daily chart of XJO
Note the rally one from the low lasted 9 days with a range of 313.40 points
Then it retrace 61.8% before the second rally started
The second rally also lasted 9 trading days with gain of 322.2 points, which is very close repeat of pervious range of 313.4, ie 100% extension from the low of 61.8%
This extension level also lined up with the 4601 which is the 50% retracements level.
Now we have time count of 9 days, lined up with 50% retracements and 100% extension from previous 61.8% retracements
It is very likely that 4600 will be a key resistance point.
As we witnessed that yesterday the market turned downwards
Now the next testing ground is 4500.
If it repeats the previous retracements we looking at 4420 below this level market is extremely bearish
Generally speaking the market is very weak, rally faltered at 50% retracements level. In worse scenario, my price projection is 3700
Market is also trading below 200days and have a dead crossover occurred.

Tuesday, June 15, 2010

CCL


CCL:


Looks like is breaking out the triangle pattern, although I like to see more volume by this week end.

It has now closed above resistance of $11.74

Long term up trend, 34 weeks acted as support in recent weeks

In this pattern, note the recent low is higher than previous low, it suggestion CCL is ready for the next leg up.

Now I expect $11.70 will act as support

80% stock break out should retrace to the old resistance level

Target price $12.19 then $13.12



Wednesday, June 2, 2010

Amazing Fibonacci works magic on DJI - Dow Jones

Further study on DJI, I found those amazing symmetry in time.

According to Gann’s theory, only when sufficient time have passed will the market make its strongest move.

Time study is an attempt to find the when it is sufficient. Following analysis will demonstrate the power of time study:


Fibonacci number: 0,1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89,144


Drop 1: 13 trading days, note the strong divergence on FI, it means investors are buying up on up days, reversal is imminent.

Subsequent rise lasted 54 days, on 55 days, it broke below the daily trend line. 55 is a Fibonacci number. The fall after is dramatic.

Drop 2: lasted 8 days

Drop 3: lasted 21 days and form a lower low comparing to drop 2 bottom. However on the FI index, a divergence is observed, subsequently a rally ensured.

Also note recent peak to peak is exactly 13 days.

Conclusion: DJI is obeying the Fibonacci in Time, next to watch is 34 and 55 days from peak.

Lesson: No need to trade all the time, only trade when there is a very high chance of success and trade big and meaningfully. Trading frequently doesn’t mean more profit, it means hard work, working against the odd and taking chance of a trade that is not perfect.

Happy trading,

Shi